Abbreviations

k: purchase order
v: selling order
bk: purchase order for bundle of shares
bv: selling order for bundle of shares
ck: cancelled purchase order
cv: cancelled selling order
cbk: cancelled purchase order for bundle of shares
cbv: cancelled selling order for bundle of shares
ak: expired purchase order
av: expired selling order

Arbitrage

Arbitrage is the systematic use of price- and rate-differences on different markets. Gains that are attained by arbitrage are risk-free.

Ask

This is the price of a share. See «Offer for sale».

Bid

This is the price offered to buy a share. «High bid» means the highest actual offer to buy.

Share bundles

A bundle of shares consists of one share each of all shares that are listed on the market.

Share market bundles

In a share market bundle you purchase from the bank not just one share but a whole bundle of shares. When you purchase a bundle of shares on the election stock market you get one share each of all the shares in the market. The price of a bundle of shares remains the same during the whole time the market is open.

Cancellation

Orders that were set by mistake or that are no longer sufficient can be cancelled as long as no trade has been executed. To edit an order go to the order overview page (on the respective market page: «Order» button in «My Portfolio»).

Capital

From the beginning of the election stock market you own a certain amount of EX (e.g. 100,000). This capital is virtual and not an official currency. It is only used to evaluate your performance on the election stock market.

Chart

The chart shows the development of the shares graphically. It should help you to keep track of the shares.

Difference share

The «difference» share represents the difference between the sum of all of the shares on the market and the market value (total value of the respective market). Prediction markets require a fixed total value in order to be able to buy and sell bundles of shares. Therefore, markets whose values are arbitrarily determined need an additional (artificial) share – the «difference» share.

For example: A prognosis needs to be made concerning minority party results in a parliamentary election. In order to obtain a good prediction, the combined market value of the minority party shares is arbitrarily limited to 20 (=20%), instead of the normal 100 (= 100%). A supposition is made that the minority parties as a whole will not receive more than 20% of the votes. However, because the exact results for these minority parties are not known before the election, the artificial «difference» share is introduced into the party market. This share can be traded and allows the buying and selling of bundles.

Sample calculation: Market value 20: If during the elections the named parties attain 15% of the seats in parliament, the «difference» share is distributed with a value of 5 EX (market value 20 – voter portion 15 = value 5). Should the actual result of the parties represented on the market surprisingly exceed the market value (here 20), the «difference» share is set to 0 EX. All other shares will be distributed according to their actual results.

Note: If the market value is diminished, prediction variances are also reduced. Minority parties can be more accurately predicted the lower the market value is set.

EX

EX is the virtual currency on the election stock market. The seed capital differs among the different markets (100,000 EX min.)

History

By clicking on the menu item «Transactions» you are able to see all of the transactions you have initiated.

Invisible Order

If you set an order that is higher than the cash-stock you currently have available, the order will be only visible on the trading platform as far as it is covered by your cash-stock.

The visible amount of shares of your order will increase or decrease according to your cash-stock.

This principle is valid for offers to buy and sell as well as for the purchase and sale of share blocks.

Market

A market represents a question about an event in the future. The shares in this market represent the answer to the market question. Which party will win? Shares (answered): party A, party B, etc.

Market value

The market value of a share at any time is the last price at which the share was traded.

Offer for sale

If you want to sell shares you have to set an offer for sale. Therefore, you click the «P» («Prediction») button next to the share name. The trading-window opens. In this window you

  • define the price at which you want to sell your shares
  • define the amount of shares that you want to sell
  • define by date how long the order should be valid
  • click «sell shares»

See also: Ask

Offer to buy

If you want to buy shares, you have to set an offer to buy first. Therefore, you click the «P» («Prediction») button next to the share name. The trading-window opens. In this window you

  • define the price at which you want to buy your shares
  • define the amount of shares that you want to buy
  • define by date how long the order should be valid
  • click «buy shares»

If your offer to buy is not met by a sell offer, your offer will be put into the ask-queue. People who want to sell their shares will see your order and submit their quotes. If the price and amount of offers to buy and sell meet, the trade will be concluded automatically. Shares are then replaced by cash and vice versa.

Order

This is a synonym for either an offer to buy or an offer to sell on the stock market.

An incorrect order can also be corrected after the fact as long as no trade has taken place. To edit an order go to the order overview page (on the respective market page: «Order» button in «My Portfolio»).

Overcommit

If you switch on the «Overcommit» function, you are able to order more shares than your cash would allow. It is possible that only a part of your order will be visible.
If this function is switched off, you are only able to set orders as long as you have sufficient cash to fulfil your orders. This refers to the total of all orders, not the single order.
This principle is valid for offers to buy and sell as well as for the purchase and sale of share blocks. You may customize the «Overcommit» function in your personal settings separately for shares and block of shares.

See also: Visible Order / Invisible Order

Note: Only visible orders are honoured. Invisible orders, or orders that exceed available cash, are forfeited. Blank sales are not possible using the «Overcommit» function. The «Overcommit» function is the default setting for all users.

Percentage of Votes Market

The Percentage of Votes Market is based on the percentual election result of the different parties. The payout at the end of the market will occur according to the election result of the single parties at the election.

Portfolio

This is the total of your shares. You may obtain an overview of all your shares by clicking the «Stocks» button in the «Portfolio» box.

Share price

The market price of a share is always the price at which the last transaction was carried out. On prediction markets the current price represents the current prediction for the future event identified in the market question.

Example: The share price for party X stands at 35 on a market which aims to forecast the result of an election. This means that the traders on this market currently expect party X to win 35% of votes on election day.

Share split

Under some circumstances a share - usually the stock «Others » - can be split to generate a new, additional share in the market. This could be e.g. a party, which was not yet present in the current market with a share oft its own.

For the procedure of splitting the trading will be stopped for a short time. In the meantime the new share is generated and placed into the market while split up from the existing share «Others». Any merchant holding the existing share obtains additionally the same number of the new (split) shares at the same price.

Example: A merchant holds at the same point in time of the splitting 1500 shares «U». The new share «Z» is brought into the market. After the splitting the merchant owns now additionally 1500 shares «Z» and current 1500 shares «U».

Remark: While the splitting of the share «Others» the orders to buy and to sell are cancelled if the order was defined as «cancel order» in the field order duration («valid until»).

Ranking lists

There are two different ranking lists on the election stock market:

  1. Market ranking – There is one ranking per market place.
  2. Overall ranking – In the main menu «Ranking list» under «Trader ranking list»

An activity ranking is also published which measures each trader’s activity (forum contributions among other things).

Ranking data

It is up to you if you want to provide your portfolio-data to other members. Please click «Ranking data» in your personal settings to do so.

Repurchase value

This is the price at which a share is repurchased by the bank on a specific date in relation to the result of the game.

Share / Stock

On the election stock market a share represents a virtual share of a party.

Trading

Actual trading takes place on a market’s «Details» page. This detail view can be set as the standard page (Checkbox). You can now buy and sell by clicking on «Share» or «P» (for «Prediction»).

Here are a few ways you can call up the «Detail» page:

  1. From a market page by clicking on the «Details» button.
  2. From the homepage and directly from the bottom of the page by clicking on the link for market or share.
  3. From a share page by clicking on the «Market overview» button.

What should you do?
Buy shares if the price seems to be low for you. Sell shares if you think the price is high now and will decline in the future. The difference between the purchase and selling price is your profit.

Please keep in mind: The more you trade, the greater your chances to earn a profit. It is less profitable to buy a share at the beginning of a market and hold it until the end than if you adapt your investments according to the market conditions.

Trader ranking (overall ranking)

The overall ranking displays the most successful participants across all markets. Only users with at least one point appear on the overall ranking list. Calculations are based on the following principles:

Allocation of points:
Per market place each user receives a number of points made up of two parts: the normal points and a bonus for the three first place finishes. The number of regular points allocated is based on the number of participants in a market. Normally, 50 points are allocated in a market with 100 participants or less. A doubling in the number of users produces an increase of 10 points:

0-100: 50 points
101-200: 60 points
201-400: 70 points
401-800: 80 points
etc.

The top finisher (based on portfolio value) receives the maximum number of points. The last place finisher with positive returns (at least 0.01 currency units more than spent) receives one point. Those in between will be interpolated linearly (based on standing) and rounded up to the next whole number. Users with negative returns receive no points. Those finishing in the top three receive bonus points:

First:  20 points
Second: 10 points
Third:  5 points

Performance:
Performance values (in %) in the individual trading markets will be added.

Overall performance:
The gains obtained on all of the markets include all of the initial capital invested. Only trading markets will be included in which at least one regular trade was carried out (purchase or sale).

Transactions

As soon as a buy or sell order is accepted by a trader, a so-called transaction is immediately carried out – the actual trade takes place. Traders can carry out as many transactions as they wish provided they have sufficient capital. All of the transactions executed on a market by a trader are listed under the menu item «Transactions». These can be found on the respective market page: «Transactions» button in «My Portfolio»).

Visible order

If you set an order that is higher than your current available cash, only the amount that is sufficient to fulfil your order is visible.
The visible order will increase or decrease according to your cash-stock.
This principle is valid for offers to buy and sell as well as for the purchase and sale of share blocks.

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Märkte und Wahltermine im
März 2012

Im laufenden Monat finden folgende Wahlen und Abstimmungen statt – zu allen Terminen sind eigene Märkte aufgesetzt worden:

  • 06.03. Super Tuesday in den USA
  • 06.03. GOP-Vorwahlen in Ohio
  • 06.03. GOP-Vorwahlen in Virginia
  • 10.03. Parlamentswahl in der Slowakei
  • 11.03. kantonale Wahlen in der Schweiz: Schwyz, St. Gallen, Uri, Waadt
  • 11.03. Volksabstimmung in der Schweiz
  • 13.03. GOP-Vorwahlen in Mississippi
  • 17.03. GOP-Vorwahlen in Missouri
  • 18.03. Bundespräsidentenwahl
  • 20.03. GOP-Vorwahlen in Illinois
  • 24.03. GOP-Vorwahlen in Louisiana
  • 25.03. Landtagswahl im Saarland

neue / kommende Märkte

  • Gemeinderatswahl in Innsbruck
  • Bürgermeisterwahl in Innsbruck
  • Landtagswahl in Schleswig-Holstein
  • Parlamentswahl in Griechenland
  • Parlamentswahl in Frankreich
  • Präsidentschaftswahl in Frankreich
  • kantonale Wahlen in der Schweiz: Thurgau
  • deutscher Fußballmeister
  • Euro 2012

How does this work?

This is how you contribute to the prediction - See the Infocenter

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