Danish general elections (Folketingsvalget)

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  • Danish general elections (Folketingsvalget)

    gruener (Luddit), 05.03.2026 06:17
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Dänemark dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2015.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

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      Verwendete Parteienkürzel:

      In Dänemark sind alle Parteien mit einem Kürzel - auch als (einprägsames) Symbol - versehen, das meist nur aus einem Buchstaben besteht. Achtung: "A" ist nicht gleich "Å".

      ASocialdemokratietSocial Democrats
      VVenstre - Danmarks Liberale PartiVenstre ("Left") - Denmark's Liberal Party
      MModeraterneThe Moderates
      FSocialistisk FolkepartiSocialist People's Party (Green Left)
      ÆDanmarksdemokraterneDenmark's Democrats
      ILiberal AllianceLiberal Alliance
      CDet Konservative FolkepartiConservative People's Party
      ØEnhedslisten – De Rød-GrønneThe Unity List - Red–Green Alliance
      BRadikale VenstreRadical Left (Social Liberals)
      DNye BorgerligeNew Conservatives
      ÅAlternativetThe Alternative
      IDansk FolkepartiDanish People's Party
      QFrie GrønneIndependent Greens
      KKristendemokraterneChristian Democrats
      HBorgernes Parti Citizens' Party
      PStram Kurs Hard Line




      SAndre partierOther parties




      Hinweis:

      In den Auswertungstabellen werden (auch aus Platzgründen) ausschließlich die Kürzel verwendet. Das "S" für die "sonstigen Parteien" wurde von Wahlfieber zusätzlich "erfunden", da aktuell keiner Partei zugeordnet.

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        Weitere Anmerkungen:

        Quellen:

        • wahlfieber.com
        • wikipedia.org
        • politpro.eu
        • politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls
        • X/Twitter: --- x.com/GlobeElections --- x.com/XPoll21 --- x.com/wahl_prognosen --- x.com/wahlfieber
        • Ergebnisse:

        *******

        Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

        *******

        *******

        Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

        Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

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      • Danish general election, 2011

        Wahlfieber Team, 07.03.2026 00:26, Reply to #1
        #2

        ..

        Parlamentswahl Dänemark 2011 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

        ...

        folgt

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      • Danish general election, 2015

        Wahlfieber Team, 07.03.2026 00:35, Reply to #2
        #3

        ..

        Parlamentswahl Dänemark 2015 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

        ...

        VAOBFØICÅSNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
        Ergebnis 201126,7324,8112,329,509,206,684,984,940,000,84
        Prognosen 2015
        Wahlbörsen
        Wahlfieber21,0124,8617,805,065,489,277,723,910,004,892,541,236,532,257
        Umfragen
        Epinion20,6024,5018,005,205,309,307,503,904,900,802,311,005,681,815
        Voxmeter19,6025,9017,204,606,309,807,703,504,500,902,280,925,052,384
        Megafon20,6025,5017,905,005,208,607,703,904,601,002,080,834,751,421
        Greens20,9024,4018,505,605,408,507,603,305,200,602,410,976,701,556
        Wilke19,8024,0017,505,505,509,007,804,705,500,702,791,228,342,469
        Gallup20,6025,9018,105,205,308,007,103,804,701,302,200,785,791,252
        Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
        PolitPro Wahltrend21,0026,0019,006,006,008,007,004,002,001,002,921,149,982,0611
        Expertenprognosen
        Wahlfieber Team (MMI)20,2525,0018,005,005,509,007,504,005,000,752,280,915,871,563
        MMI-Wahltrend20,6925,2518,185,295,528,717,363,923,321,752,841,119,711,7310
        Wahltipps
        Wahlfoeber Average20,6125,0618,025,125,508,967,503,954,160,532,621,018,151,648
        VAOBFØICÅSNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
        Durchschnittswerte
        Wahlbörsen21,0124,8617,805,065,489,277,723,910,004,892,541,236,532,25
        Umfragen20,3525,0317,875,185,508,877,573,854,900,882,350,956,051,81
        Sonstige Prognosen21,0026,0019,006,006,008,007,004,002,001,002,921,149,982,06
        Expertenprognosen20,4725,1318,095,155,518,867,433,964,161,252,721,068,781,74
        Wahltipps20,6125,0618,025,125,508,967,503,954,160,532,621,018,151,64
        Gesamtdurchschnitt
        Summen20,5125,1218,025,235,558,837,503,903,991,292,541,027,271,84
        Ergebnis 201519,4726,2821,084,584,197,807,533,354,800,92
        VAOBFØICÅSNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
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      • Danish general election, 2019

        Wahlfieber Team, 07.03.2026 00:45, Reply to #3
        #4

        ..

        Parlamentswahl Dänemark 2019 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

        ...

        AOVØIÅBFCDKSNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
        Ergebnis 201526,3021,1019,507,807,504,804,604,203,400,000,800,90
        Prognosen 2019
        Wahlbörse
        Wahlfieber26,6610,2418,369,282,733,318,498,444,762,870,004,862,861,287,783,496
        Umfragen
        Norstat28,6010,5017,908,703,602,607,307,404,504,101,902,903,581,7511,534,9912
        Epinion25,709,6020,708,502,403,408,608,106,202,701,702,401,890,674,211,021
        Voxmeter29,3010,1018,208,503,302,808,908,804,501,801,602,203,261,579,474,5610
        Megafon25,7012,1019,508,803,503,508,307,305,302,201,502,302,891,268,453,097
        Greens26,2010,5018,708,302,804,006,508,405,203,302,004,103,251,5010,633,559
        Gallup25,7010,6022,308,002,802,907,507,606,102,601,902,001,940,664,770,722
        YouGov27,3011,3018,608,203,202,707,606,904,604,701,703,203,411,6211,224,1211
        Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
        PolitPro Wahltrend26,0012,0018,009,004,003,007,008,006,002,001,004,003,191,459,144,578
        Experten-prognosen
        Wahlfieber Team (MMI)26,5010,5020,008,503,003,008,008,005,503,001,502,502,451,016,691,834
        MMI-Wahltrend26,1410,2420,348,572,733,158,158,045,642,791,282,942,210,865,541,453
        Wahltipps
        Wahlfieber Average26,4110,3419,728,722,833,138,188,125,372,891,392,772,451,016,452,005
        AOVØIÅBFCDKSNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
        Durch-schnitts-werte
        Wahlbörse26,6610,2418,369,282,733,318,498,444,762,870,004,862,861,287,783,49
        Umfragen26,9310,6719,418,433,093,137,817,795,203,061,762,732,921,298,613,15
        Sonstige Prognosen26,0012,0018,009,004,003,007,008,006,002,001,004,003,191,459,144,57
        Experten-prognosen26,3210,3720,178,542,873,088,078,025,572,901,392,722,330,946,111,64
        Wahltipps26,4110,3419,728,722,833,138,188,125,372,891,392,772,451,016,452,00
        Gesamt-durch-schnitt
        Summen26,6810,6719,368,593,073,127,887,925,312,911,463,012,811,227,992,95
        Ergebnis 201925,908,740,000,002,332,958,637,716,622,361,732,70
        AOVØIÅBFCDKSNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
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      • Danish general election, 2022

        Wahlfieber Team, 07.03.2026 00:56, Reply to #4
        #5

        ..

        Parlamentswahl Dänemark 2022 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

        ...

        folgt

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